Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 28 2021 | 11221 | 49653 | 371 | 105 | 85 | 129 |
| March 29 2021 | 11221 | 49687 | 372 | 105 | 78 | 124 |
| March 30 2021 | 11227 | 49744 | 373 | 105 | 71 | 126 |
| March 31 2021 | 11247 | 49814 | 375 | 105 | 86 | 127 |
| April 01 2021 | 11256 | 49882 | 376 | 105 | 95 | 120 |
| April 02 2021 | 11272 | 49924 | 377 | 105 | 104 | 129 |
| April 03 2021 | 11275 | 49973 | 378 | 105 | 88 | 119 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.9 | 11.4% | 10 | 0.09% | 11 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.0 | 13.6% | 12 | 0.09% | 15 | 0.11% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.6 | 18.2% | 16 | 0.08% | 20 | 0.1% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 2.3 | 26.1% | 23 | 0.17% | 28 | 0.21% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 0.7 | 12.5% | 11 | 0.11% | 18 | 0.17% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.0 | 11.4% | 10 | 0.08% | 13 | 0.1% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.6 | 4.5% | 4 | 0.03% | 7 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.3 | 2.3% | 2 | 0.02% | 7 | 0.07% |
| All ages | 3 | 8.3 | 100% | 88 | 0.08% | 119 | 0.11% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 28 2021 | 7171 | 29203 | 236 | 93 | 40 | 56 |
| March 29 2021 | 7170 | 29220 | 238 | 93 | 33 | 52 |
| March 30 2021 | 7177 | 29252 | 238 | 93 | 30 | 59 |
| March 31 2021 | 7183 | 29289 | 238 | 93 | 31 | 54 |
| April 01 2021 | 7182 | 29324 | 237 | 93 | 31 | 48 |
| April 02 2021 | 7185 | 29358 | 237 | 93 | 32 | 44 |
| April 03 2021 | 7185 | 29389 | 237 | 93 | 23 | 34 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | 8% | 2 | 0.03% | 3 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.3 | 20% | 5 | 0.06% | 9 | 0.11% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.6 | 20% | 5 | 0.07% | 6 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.4 | 20% | 5 | 0.06% | 5 | 0.06% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.0 | -4% | -1 | -0.01% | 0 | 0% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.1 | 8% | 2 | 0.02% | 6 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.6 | 24% | 6 | 0.07% | 6 | 0.07% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.0 | 4% | 1 | 0.01% | 1 | 0.01% |
| All ages | 0 | 2.0 | 100% | 25 | 0.04% | 36 | 0.06% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 28 2021 | 5512 | 19304 | 246 | 76 | 29 | 43 |
| March 29 2021 | 5516 | 19313 | 246 | 76 | 32 | 44 |
| March 30 2021 | 5517 | 19334 | 246 | 76 | 24 | 42 |
| March 31 2021 | 5524 | 19362 | 246 | 76 | 28 | 44 |
| April 01 2021 | 5527 | 19387 | 246 | 76 | 31 | 44 |
| April 02 2021 | 5532 | 19414 | 246 | 76 | 34 | 48 |
| April 03 2021 | 5541 | 19437 | 248 | 76 | 36 | 48 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.3 | 8.3% | 3 | 0.06% | 3 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 1.3 | 25% | 9 | 0.17% | 14 | 0.26% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 0.6 | 13.9% | 5 | 0.11% | 5 | 0.11% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 1.0 | 19.4% | 7 | 0.13% | 10 | 0.18% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.4 | 8.3% | 3 | 0.06% | 4 | 0.08% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 0.6 | 11.1% | 4 | 0.06% | 4 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.3 | 8.3% | 3 | 0.05% | 4 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.3 | 5.6% | 2 | 0.03% | 4 | 0.06% |
| All ages | 9 | 4.7 | 100% | 36 | 0.08% | 48 | 0.11% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 28 2021 | 12394 | 55012 | 379 | 80 | 71 | 97 |
| March 29 2021 | 12394 | 55083 | 380 | 80 | 70 | 95 |
| March 30 2021 | 12406 | 55176 | 380 | 80 | 70 | 101 |
| March 31 2021 | 12412 | 55296 | 382 | 80 | 72 | 97 |
| April 01 2021 | 12419 | 55375 | 383 | 80 | 79 | 96 |
| April 02 2021 | 12444 | 55438 | 384 | 80 | 94 | 120 |
| April 03 2021 | 12460 | 55512 | 384 | 80 | 95 | 124 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.7 | 12.6% | 12 | 0.1% | 20 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 2.1 | 31.6% | 30 | 0.18% | 30 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 1.4 | 11.6% | 11 | 0.05% | 12 | 0.06% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 1.3 | 10.5% | 10 | 0.07% | 19 | 0.14% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.7 | 11.6% | 11 | 0.08% | 16 | 0.12% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 1.6 | 13.7% | 13 | 0.09% | 14 | 0.1% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.3 | 2.1% | 2 | 0.01% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.7 | 6.3% | 6 | 0.05% | 8 | 0.06% |
| All ages | 16 | 9.9 | 100% | 95 | 0.08% | 124 | 0.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 28 2021 | 41955 | 329628 | 1313 | 288 | 476 | 645 |
| March 29 2021 | 42002 | 329963 | 1314 | 288 | 474 | 670 |
| March 30 2021 | 42037 | 330025 | 1317 | 288 | 482 | 662 |
| March 31 2021 | 42069 | 330783 | 1324 | 288 | 464 | 658 |
| April 01 2021 | 42150 | 331227 | 1323 | 289 | 513 | 671 |
| April 02 2021 | 42237 | 331537 | 1324 | 289 | 583 | 709 |
| April 03 2021 | 42318 | 331956 | 1325 | 289 | 598 | 763 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 5.1 | 9% | 54 | 0.09% | 69 | 0.11% |
| 10-19 | 16 | 10.7 | 17.6% | 105 | 0.15% | 141 | 0.2% |
| 20-29 | 18 | 14.1 | 23.9% | 143 | 0.14% | 180 | 0.17% |
| 30-39 | 15 | 11.3 | 21.1% | 126 | 0.16% | 150 | 0.2% |
| 40-49 | 21 | 7.3 | 11.9% | 71 | 0.11% | 92 | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 6.1 | 9.7% | 58 | 0.09% | 75 | 0.11% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2.6 | 5.2% | 31 | 0.06% | 41 | 0.07% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.3 | 1.7% | 10 | 0.02% | 15 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 81 | 58.6 | 100% | 598 | 0.11% | 763 | 0.14% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 28 2021 | 575748 | 2709348 | 27433 | 6598 | 4528 | 6110 |
| March 29 2021 | 576044 | 2712235 | 27466 | 6601 | 4434 | 6112 |
| March 30 2021 | 576632 | 2715398 | 27531 | 6612 | 4620 | 6220 |
| March 31 2021 | 577195 | 2732374 | 27598 | 6622 | 4763 | 6465 |
| April 01 2021 | 577712 | 2736466 | 27638 | 6625 | 4942 | 6492 |
| April 02 2021 | 578587 | 2739782 | 27685 | 6633 | 5464 | 6977 |
| April 03 2021 | 579293 | 2743387 | 27739 | 6640 | 5394 | 7281 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 50 | 39.9 | 7.8% | 420 | 0.07% | 553 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 108 | 85.6 | 16% | 863 | 0.11% | 1181 | 0.16% |
| 20-29 | 143 | 106.7 | 18.3% | 985 | 0.13% | 1253 | 0.17% |
| 30-39 | 103 | 95.0 | 17.5% | 943 | 0.12% | 1252 | 0.17% |
| 40-49 | 94 | 74.3 | 13.2% | 714 | 0.1% | 1006 | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | 122 | 91.0 | 15.2% | 822 | 0.1% | 1094 | 0.13% |
| 60-69 | 55 | 52.4 | 9.1% | 489 | 0.06% | 671 | 0.09% |
| 70+ | 31 | 22.7 | 2.9% | 158 | 0.02% | 271 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 706 | 567.6 | 100% | 5394 | 0.09% | 7281 | 0.13% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.4 | 11 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 13.9% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 6.1% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.6 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 18.2% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 18.1 | 5.6 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 11% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 19.8 | 17.3 | 58.6 | 39.9 | 13.3% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.5 | 15.6 | 16.6 | 567.6 | 387.3 | 9.6% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.66 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-04-24 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5849"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges