Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) Aug 31, Sept 14, Sept 28 and Jan 31, Feb 14, Feb 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 28 2021 11221 49653 371 105 85 129
March 29 2021 11221 49687 372 105 78 124
March 30 2021 11227 49744 373 105 71 126
March 31 2021 11247 49814 375 105 86 127
April 01 2021 11256 49882 376 105 95 120
April 02 2021 11272 49924 377 105 104 129
April 03 2021 11275 49973 378 105 88 119
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.9 11.4% 10 0.09% 11 0.1%
10-19 0 1.0 13.6% 12 0.09% 15 0.11%
20-29 1 1.6 18.2% 16 0.08% 20 0.1%
30-39 0 2.3 26.1% 23 0.17% 28 0.21%
40-49 1 0.7 12.5% 11 0.11% 18 0.17%
50-59 0 1.0 11.4% 10 0.08% 13 0.1%
60-69 0 0.6 4.5% 4 0.03% 7 0.06%
70+ 0 0.3 2.3% 2 0.02% 7 0.07%
All ages 3 8.3 100% 88 0.08% 119 0.11%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 28 2021 7171 29203 236 93 40 56
March 29 2021 7170 29220 238 93 33 52
March 30 2021 7177 29252 238 93 30 59
March 31 2021 7183 29289 238 93 31 54
April 01 2021 7182 29324 237 93 31 48
April 02 2021 7185 29358 237 93 32 44
April 03 2021 7185 29389 237 93 23 34
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.0 8% 2 0.03% 3 0.04%
10-19 0 0.3 20% 5 0.06% 9 0.11%
20-29 0 0.6 20% 5 0.07% 6 0.08%
30-39 0 0.4 20% 5 0.06% 5 0.06%
40-49 0 0.0 -4% -1 -0.01% 0 0%
50-59 0 0.1 8% 2 0.02% 6 0.06%
60-69 0 0.6 24% 6 0.07% 6 0.07%
70+ 0 0.0 4% 1 0.01% 1 0.01%
All ages 0 2.0 100% 25 0.04% 36 0.06%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 28 2021 5512 19304 246 76 29 43
March 29 2021 5516 19313 246 76 32 44
March 30 2021 5517 19334 246 76 24 42
March 31 2021 5524 19362 246 76 28 44
April 01 2021 5527 19387 246 76 31 44
April 02 2021 5532 19414 246 76 34 48
April 03 2021 5541 19437 248 76 36 48
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.3 8.3% 3 0.06% 3 0.06%
10-19 3 1.3 25% 9 0.17% 14 0.26%
20-29 1 0.6 13.9% 5 0.11% 5 0.11%
30-39 2 1.0 19.4% 7 0.13% 10 0.18%
40-49 0 0.4 8.3% 3 0.06% 4 0.08%
50-59 2 0.6 11.1% 4 0.06% 4 0.06%
60-69 1 0.3 8.3% 3 0.05% 4 0.06%
70+ 0 0.3 5.6% 2 0.03% 4 0.06%
All ages 9 4.7 100% 36 0.08% 48 0.11%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 28 2021 12394 55012 379 80 71 97
March 29 2021 12394 55083 380 80 70 95
March 30 2021 12406 55176 380 80 70 101
March 31 2021 12412 55296 382 80 72 97
April 01 2021 12419 55375 383 80 79 96
April 02 2021 12444 55438 384 80 94 120
April 03 2021 12460 55512 384 80 95 124
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.7 12.6% 12 0.1% 20 0.17%
10-19 5 2.1 31.6% 30 0.18% 30 0.18%
20-29 4 1.4 11.6% 11 0.05% 12 0.06%
30-39 3 1.3 10.5% 10 0.07% 19 0.14%
40-49 0 1.7 11.6% 11 0.08% 16 0.12%
50-59 2 1.6 13.7% 13 0.09% 14 0.1%
60-69 1 0.3 2.1% 2 0.01% 5 0.04%
70+ 0 0.7 6.3% 6 0.05% 8 0.06%
All ages 16 9.9 100% 95 0.08% 124 0.1%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 28 2021 41955 329628 1313 288 476 645
March 29 2021 42002 329963 1314 288 474 670
March 30 2021 42037 330025 1317 288 482 662
March 31 2021 42069 330783 1324 288 464 658
April 01 2021 42150 331227 1323 289 513 671
April 02 2021 42237 331537 1324 289 583 709
April 03 2021 42318 331956 1325 289 598 763
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 5.1 9% 54 0.09% 69 0.11%
10-19 16 10.7 17.6% 105 0.15% 141 0.2%
20-29 18 14.1 23.9% 143 0.14% 180 0.17%
30-39 15 11.3 21.1% 126 0.16% 150 0.2%
40-49 21 7.3 11.9% 71 0.11% 92 0.14%
50-59 4 6.1 9.7% 58 0.09% 75 0.11%
60-69 3 2.6 5.2% 31 0.06% 41 0.07%
70+ 1 1.3 1.7% 10 0.02% 15 0.03%
All ages 81 58.6 100% 598 0.11% 763 0.14%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 28 2021 575748 2709348 27433 6598 4528 6110
March 29 2021 576044 2712235 27466 6601 4434 6112
March 30 2021 576632 2715398 27531 6612 4620 6220
March 31 2021 577195 2732374 27598 6622 4763 6465
April 01 2021 577712 2736466 27638 6625 4942 6492
April 02 2021 578587 2739782 27685 6633 5464 6977
April 03 2021 579293 2743387 27739 6640 5394 7281
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 50 39.9 7.8% 420 0.07% 553 0.09%
10-19 108 85.6 16% 863 0.11% 1181 0.16%
20-29 143 106.7 18.3% 985 0.13% 1253 0.17%
30-39 103 95.0 17.5% 943 0.12% 1252 0.17%
40-49 94 74.3 13.2% 714 0.1% 1006 0.14%
50-59 122 91.0 15.2% 822 0.1% 1094 0.13%
60-69 55 52.4 9.1% 489 0.06% 671 0.09%
70+ 31 22.7 2.9% 158 0.02% 271 0.04%
All ages 706 567.6 100% 5394 0.09% 7281 0.13%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
11.4 11 9.6 8.3 9.6 13.9%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
5.6 1.7 4.4 6.1%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
10.6 4.7 3.3 18.2%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
10.5 18.1 5.6 9.9 6.4 11%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
14 19.8 17.3 58.6 39.9 13.3%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
12.5 15.6 16.6 567.6 387.3 9.6%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.66 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-04-24 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5849"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red